Opportunity Assessment NOW™ – A Business Development Analytic
1. Introduction to Analytics
Analytics is used by a number of companies in a variety of industries to achieve a competitive advantage. Analytics is the use of statistical and quantitative analysis resulting in fact-based management to drive decisions. The objective is to make concrete fact-based decisions versus opinions or assumptions. Two examples of companies achieving a competitive advantage through analytics are Netflix and the Oakland Athletics.
Netflix developed analytics to predict customer movie preferences and then was able to deliver the most likely preferences in a timely manner which increased revenue and profitability.
The Oakland Athletics developed analytics to select players to maximize the number of games they could win. They were willing to rethink baseball and determine which questions had to be asked and answered in order to compete with teams with budgets 400% greater than theirs. The Oakland Athletics success was considered an aberration, but the analytics separated them from the competition (Lewis, 2003).
There are numerous examples of companies that have used analytics to achieve a competitive advantage (Davenport, 2010, Davenport, 2007).
Government contractors spend a significant amount of resources responding to Request for Proposals (RFPs). These resources are both financial and human. A typical government contractor wins 30% of the competitive opportunities it pursues and loses 70%. There is a clear benefit to determining if an opportunity is in the 30% category or 70% category prior to bidding. Centurion’s Opportunity Assessment NOW™ provides exactly that capability.
2. Opportunity Assessment NOW™ Value Proposition
Centurion’s Opportunity Assessment NOW™ is a Business Development Analytic that has the proven ability to accurately predict proposal win rates. The Opportunity Assessment NOW™ process provides the ability to decrease Bid and Proposal (B&P) expenses, by identifying and rejecting the lowest odds to win bids, while maintaining and in many cases increasing the win volume. This is a staggeringly positive result. A typical $100M business with a 20% growth objective and a 30% win rate would be able to save or redirect $1.4 M per year.
Table 1 illustrates the relationship of Centurion Research Solutions Business Intelligence NOW™ and Opportunity Assessment NOW™ in the context of Business Intelligence and Analytics (Davenport, 2007). The CRS Reports are illustrated in the context of Analytics and Access and Reporting.
| CRS Reports | ||||
| C O M P E T I T I V E A D V A N T A G E |
Optimization | What is the best that can happen | Pipeline Ranking Resource Optimization |
Analytics (OAN) |
| Predictive Modeling | What will happen next? | Action Planning Individual Assessment |
||
| Forecasting / Extrapolation | What if these trends continue? | Pipeline Ranking | ||
| Statistical Analysis | Why is this happening? | Individual Assessment History / Baseline |
||
| Alerts | What actions are needed? | Opportunity, Agency, Saved Search notifications and alerts | Access and Reporting (Business Intelligence NOW) |
|
| Query / Drill Down | Where exactly is the problem? | Searching 20,000+ Opportunity Reports | ||
| Ad hoc Reports | How many, how often, where? | Customer Service Requests | ||
| Standard Reports | What happened? | Opportunity Specific Reports | ||
A Return on Investment (ROI) analysis can be calculated by clicking on Centurion’s Opportunity Assessment ROI Calculator. This analysis enables an organization to calculate the amount of resources that can be saved or redirected under organizational specific assumptions.
3. Opportunity Assessment NOW™ Background
The most common approaches to responding to RFP’s are a Capture process or a Business Development process. These processes have been used for a number of years and vary in sophistication and are inherently helpful. We recommend beginning the RFP process by asking these questions;
1. If I bid this opportunity am I going to win or lose?
2. If I am not in a winning position, what do I have to do to get to a winning position?
3. Is it reasonable to accomplish the actions to get to the winning position?
Answering these questions up front will improve business performance by allowing clients to select the best opportunities to bid and rejecting the worst thereby maximizing the effective use of resources. A quantitative and qualitative answering approach to decision making is far preferred over a subjective evaluation.
Utilizing a quantitative and fact-based approach is the basis for Opportunity Assessment NOW™ (OAN), identifying the factors that determine the proposal outcome. Included in OAN is a database of wins and losses and an optimization technique that determines the optimal allocation of weighting between and within the factors. The power of the tool is using the analytics to make key decisions that improve business performance.
Figure 1: Centurion’s Seven Factors that Influence Winning©
4. Opportunity Assessment NOW™ Process and Reporting
This section describes the overall flow for Opportunity Assessment NOW™and reporting as well as a description of the specific steps required.
Figure 2: Opportunity Assessment NOW™ Process and Reporting©
STEP 1 – Perform an Individual Assessment on an Opportunity Using Centurion’s Seven Factors.
The Individual Assessment will establish the overall competitive position of the opportunity as well as the competitive position within each factor. At this point the competitive position is based on industry standard data, as opposed to being tailored to a specific company.
STEP 2 – Generate an Individual Assessment Report
This report provides a quantitative assessment of the individual opportunity.
In terms of the Opportunity Assessment NOW™ Process and reporting there are two potential paths at this point. One is to tailor the Winning and Losing Zones to a specific company, History/Baseline Report, and the other is to develop a Pipeline Ranking Report based on industry standard data. Consider the approach to tailor OAN to a specific company.
STEP 3 – History/Baseline Report. Determine the breakpoint that separates the Winning and Losing zones.
An effective approach is to evaluate company specific opportunities where the results are known. This would be achieved by selecting 10-20 opportunities where the result is known, score them, put them in the History/Baseline Report, order them by highest to lowest score and observe the breakpoint, say 65. Experience has shown that there are three zones. The Winning zone (Green), the Losing zone (Red) and a Neutral zone (Yellow). If an opportunity is in the Neutral zone it is more difficult to predict the result. The Neutral zone is +/- four points around the breakpoint. The key to the effectiveness of this process is objectively answering the questions in Opportunity Assessment NOW. The companies that are most effective in using this analytic are those who are able to be brutally honest with their answers. They are able to confront the brutal facts of reality (Collins, 2001). This tends to be achieved when multiple people discuss and debate the response to the questions.
STEP 4 – Pipeline Ranking Report
The Pipeline Ranking Report is developed by assessing a number of opportunities and populating the report. This provides an overview of the competitiveness of all the opportunities. This report will indicate areas of strengths and weaknesses in terms of competitiveness. Frequently an opportunity will not score as well as desired or expected. Complete the Individual Assessments to rank your pipeline.
STEP 5 – Action Planning Report, Complete Action Planning on selected opportunities
If I am not in a winning position, what do I need to do to get to a winning position? In order to develop actionable recommendations it is necessary to relook at the scoring in the initial Individual Assessment. In reviewing the Individual Assessment is it reasonable to select a different response that could improve the competitive position. If that is the case an Action Planning Report is generated with specific recommendations in each of Centurion’s Seven Factors. If these actions can be achieved perform another individual assessment and relook at the competitiveness of the opportunity.
STEP 6 – Pipeline Ranking/Resource Optimization Report
This Report enables the user to optimize resources by examining the pipeline from the perspectives of most likely to win and B&P resources required.
STEP 7 – The client can now move forward to optimize their resources.
5. Analytics and Opportunity Assessment NOW™ Reporting
Figure 3 below describes the reports in terms of analytics capability. The level of competitiveness increases as you move from Statistical Analysis to Optimization.
| Analytic Capability | Opportunity Assessment Report |
| Statistical Analysis | Individual Assessment |
| History/Baseline | Forecasting/Extrapolation |
| Pipeline Ranking | Predictive Modeling |
| Action Planning | Individual Assessment |
| Optimization | Pipeline Ranking/Resource Optimization |
Figure 3: Opportunity Assessment NOW™ Reports related to Analytic Capability
The goal of Opportunity Assessment analytic is to improve business performance by making informed decisions. Figure 4 below includes a description of each report and the potential use of the report.
| Report | Description | Potential Use |
| Individual Assessment | Quantitative ranking for the Management / Technical Proposal and Cost Proposal indicating if the opportunity is in the Win, Neutral or Losing Zone |
|
| History/Baseline | Provides a ranking of opportunities where a decision has been made, Win or Loss |
|
| Pipeline Ranking | Provides a ranking of opportunities |
|
| Action Planning | Provides actionable recommendations required to increase the probability of winning |
|
| Individual Assessment, v2 | Quantitative ranking for the Management / Technical Proposal and Cost Proposal indicating if the opportunity is in the Win, Neutral or Losing Zone after implementing the actionable recommendations |
|
| Pipeline Ranking/Resource Optimization | Ranks opportunities in terms of Probability of Win Perspective and a B&P Expense Perspective |
|
Figure 4: Reports and Potential Use of Reports
Summary
Centurion’s Opportunity Assessment NOW™ is an innovative analytic tool that will significantly improve business performance. Providing statistical and quantitative analysis to prioritize opportunities in the Capture or Business Development process is the key to revolutionize the bid/no bid decision making process.
For more information:
Contact a Centurion Team Member to receive a demonstration.
References
1. Collins, J. (2001) Good to Great: Why Some Companies Make the Leap … And Others Don’t. Harper Collins Publisher.
2. Davenport, T. H., & Harris, J. G. (2007). Competing on Analytics: The New Science of Winning. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press.
3. Davenport, T. H., Harris, J. G., & Morison, R. (2010). Analytics At Work: Smarter Decisions, Better Results. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press.
4. Lewis, M. (2003). Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game. W. W. Norton & Company.